The new players in the financial markets, the kingpins of the future who had the capacity to reshape those markets, were a different breed: the Chinese guy who had spent the previous ten years in American universities; the French particle physicist from FERMAT lab; the Russian aerospace engineer; the Indian PhD in electrical engineering. “There were just thousands of these people,” said Schwall. “Basically all of them with advanced degrees. I remember thinking to myself how unfortunate it was that so many engineers were joining these firms to exploit investors rather than solving public problems.” These highly trained scientists and technicians tended to be pulled onto Wall Street by the big banks and then, after they’d learned the ropes, to move on to smaller high-frequency trading shops. They — : 1668
behaved more like free agents than employees of a big corporation. In their LinkedIn profiles, for instance, they revealed all sorts of information that their employers almost certainly would not want revealed. Here Schwall stumbled upon the predator’s weakness: The employees of the big Wall Street banks felt no more loyalty toward the banks than the banks felt toward them. — : 1674
Sal Arnuk and Joseph Saluzzi. — : 2543
Complexity, by M. Mitchell Waldrop. — : 2783
“How Complex Systems Fail,” an eighteen-bullet-point summary by Richard I. Cook, — : 2783
From his stint as a consultant he learned something valuable, however. It seemed to him that a big part of a consultant’s job was to feign total certainty about uncertain things. In a job interview with McKinsey, they told him that he was not certain enough in his opinions. “And I said it was because I wasn’t certain. And they said, ‘We’re billing clients five hundred grand a year, so you have to be sure of what you are saying.’” The consulting firm that eventually hired him was forever asking him to exhibit confidence when, in his view, confidence was a sign of fraudulence. They’d asked him to forecast the price of oil for clients, for instance. “And then we would go to our clients and tell them we could predict the price of oil. No one can predict the price of oil. It was basically nonsense.” — 28: 198-204
Later, when basketball scouts came to him looking for jobs, the trait he looked for was some awareness that they were seeking answers to questions with no certain answers—that they were inherently fallible. “I always ask them, ‘Who did you miss?’” he said. Which future superstar had they written off, or which future bust had they fallen in love with? “If they don’t give me a good one, I’m like, ‘Fuck ’em.’” — 29: 208-211
He suggested a new definition of the nerd: a person who knows his own mind well enough to mistrust it. — 31: 245-247
Occasionally, people who watched Amos in action sensed that he was more afraid of being thought unmanly than he was actually brave. “He was always very gung ho,” recalled Uri Shamir. “I thought it was maybe compensation for being thin and weak and pale.” At some point it didn’t matter: He compelled himself to be brave until bravery became a habit. — 94: 1134-1137
Amos liked to say that stinginess was contagious and so was generosity, and since behaving generously made you happier than behaving stingily, you should avoid stingy people and spend your time only with generous ones. He paid attention to what Edwards was up to without paying a lot of attention to Edwards himself. — 109: 1355-1358
The psychologist Kurt Lewin had suggested persuasively that, rather than selling people on some change, you were better off identifying the reasons for their resistance, and addressing those. Imagine a plank held in place by a spring on either side of it, Danny told the students. How do you move it? Well, you can increase the force on one side of the plank. Or you can reduce the force on the other side. “In one case the overall tension is reduced,” he said, “and in the other it is increased.” And that was a sort of proof that there was an advantage in reducing the tension. “It’s a key idea,” said Danny. “Making it easy to change.” Danny was also — 138: 1787-1792
“Someone once said that education was knowing what to do when you don’t know,” said one of his students. “Danny took that idea and ran with it.” — 140: 1813-1814
But to Danny, useful advice, however obvious, was better than no advice at all. He asked his students to figure out what advice they would give to an Egyptologist who was having difficulty deciphering a hieroglyph. “He tells us that the guy is going slower and slower and getting more and more stuck,” recalled Daniela Gordon, a student who became a researcher in the Israeli army. “Then Danny asks, ‘What should he do?’ No one could think of anything. And Danny says; ‘He should take a nap!’” — 141: 1818-1822
Danny was a pessimist. Amos was not merely an optimist; Amos willed himself to be optimistic, because he had decided pessimism was stupid. When you are a pessimist and the bad thing happens, you live it twice, Amos liked to say. Once when you worry about it, and the second time when it happens. — 155: 2014-2016
particular fashion, it is quite difficult to view it in — 194: 2570-2570
So many problems occur when people fail to be obedient when they are supposed to be obedient, and fail to be creative when they are supposed to be creative. — 230: 3080-3081
“What might have been is an essential component of misery,’” he wrote to Amos. “There is an asymmetry here, because considerations of how much worse things could have been is not a salient factor in human joy and happiness.” — 261: 3520-3522
Happy people did not dwell on some imagined unhappiness the way unhappy people imagined what they might have done differently so that they might be happy. People did not seek to avoid other emotions with the same energy they sought to avoid regret. — 261: 3522-3524
It was as if Danny thought that by anticipating his feelings he might dull the pain they would inevitably bring. By the end of — 262: 3533-3535
Amos and Danny had a thought: People regretted what they had done, and what they wished they hadn’t done, far more than what they had not done and perhaps should have. “The pain that is experienced when the loss is caused by an act that modified the status quo is significantly greater than the pain that is experienced when the decision led to the retention of the status quo,” Danny wrote in a memo to Amos. “When one fails to take action that could have avoided a disaster, one does not accept responsibility for the occurrence of the disaster.” — 264: 3557-3561
“The absence of definite information concerning the outcomes of actions one has not taken is probably the single most important factor that keeps regret in life within tolerable bounds,” Danny wrote. “We can never be absolutely sure that we would have been happier had we chosen another profession or another spouse. . . . Thus, we are often protected from painful knowledge concerning the quality of our decisions.” — 265: 3572-3575
“The availability of the alternative appears to be controlled by a relation of similarity between oneself and the target of envy. To experience envy, it is sufficient to have a vivid image of oneself in another person’s shoes; it is not necessary to have a plausible scenario of how one came to occupy those shoes.” Envy, in some strange way, required no imagination. — 267: 4124-4127
In undoing some event, the mind tended to remove whatever felt surprising or unexpected—which was different from saying that it was obeying the rules of probability. — 269: 4156-4157
“Reality is a cloud of possibility, not a point.” — 276: 4265-4265
It is sometimes easier to make the world a better place than to prove you have made the world a better place. — 308: 4754-4755